Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Can We Please Change The Channel!!



Have you ever gone to a friends or relatives house and they were watching the ONE TV show that you absolutely hated the most, and in your mind you kept saying "Can we pleeeease change the channel ?" Of course you have! lol!! Well that is how I feel with the Cable and Euro right now -

On the able and in my last post I had forecasted or - identified the 1.7600 point as a good breaking point for continued upward momentum and we got above it, and climbed to 1.7700 for a 100 pip gain - not substantial but it got us in another "snafu" lol!!! Price is now stuck between .7600 and .7720 which makes fort some pretty choppy trading for the Trend Trader huh? The "Channel Surfer" may find himself or herself at home but me.. being a "Trendy" kind of guy I find it reeeeal frustrating! lol!! To say the least.. So I have been like a "Hermit Crab" over the last couple of days - But I can say that analysis has been fun -

So what do we do from here, sounds like a line that you use when your girlfriend wants to break up with you and YOU have not fully gotten over her.. But I think it is appropiate at this stage of the game huh? Let's start with the Cable and then look at the Euro -

Cable - I am going to look at 1D and 1H charts on this one.. And I will do the same with the Euro - . In the 1H view (Cable) the Kumis rather thin which actually points towards some channel trading conditions, and as of this writting we have a tight Kijun Sen/ Tenkan Sen cross that is "Bull" in nature.. but the way it looks you are going to need additional confirmation from the Chikou Span because of the "tightness" of the Kijun/ Tenkan cross, to solidify the cross, and we do have that. One good thing about the current condition of Ichimoku is that price is above the Kumo, the Tenkan/ Kijun cross is within the Kumo, Chikou span is above price - overall sentiment is shifting on the 1D chart to "Bull" so with all this said - I want to lean toward continued upward momentum or a Bull sentiment in the short term (D/W). For any major moves I would like to see a break above 1.7721 for a continued climb toward 1.7800 then on to 1.7900. I would like to see a confirmation of the 1.7900 with a crossing of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen on the 1D chart as well - So Look for a break above 1.7721 first target 1.7800 with a second target of 1.7900.

Euro Dollar - 1.2056 - 1.2158 is the current channel - again great for the "Channel Surfer" horrible for the "Trendy". However there is hope! the Euro has positioned itself under a thin Kumo (thin cloud cover) on the 1H chart and a clearing of this Kumo would present support for an attempt at a breaking of 1.2158 where we could see continued upward momentum - on the 1D chart we actually have a Tenkan/ Kijun cross that I believe will give us higher target in the Euro - perhaps 1.2230 - 1.2280. Se we need to keep our eye on the break above 1.2158 -

All in all trading in this period seems a bit choppy - some very tight trading can be done with low equity allocation can be executed in this time until we get our breaks - but BE CAREFUL!! This would be a good time to tighten up your "Channel" trading.

Good Luck Trading!

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