Friday, January 20, 2006

Chop Suey





Chop Suey - That is what the market has been like this week - though there was room for profit taking - the profit was not taken without a test of the "gut" - in basketball we used to call it "gut check" and if you know me - I am not one for "fighting over pips". I executed a few trades based on corrections to Kijun Sen and a few Chikou-Span breaks but - overall I can honestly say this has not been a well performing week.
1. I did a lot of exerimening with Kagi charts
2. I tinkered with the setting of my traditional Ichimoku (gave it steroids)
3. I dabbled in different time frames - outside of my standard 1W, 1D, 4H, 1H views
4. I placed far too many instantaneous trades - not using Limit Orders -
Conclusion - CHOP SUEY!!! lol!!!
All in all the week was challenging and actually quite interesting. But let me tell you - I do not believe I will be living another week like this one any time soon -
Website Update -
HUNT/FX the website is still being developed - It will be my little place in space that deals in all of my offerings. On the site I will be offering Analysis, Training, Mentoring, and of course links back here - to the HUNT/FX Blog - how all of this got started. I am pretty excited about it -
Training Update -
I know it looks like I do not love all of you anymore - NOT THE CASE!!! I love all of you still - so with that said I wish that the experience that you have with HUNT/FX is a rewarding one - so I am re-building somethings and really setting HUNT/FX apart from the norm that you see on the web these days - I really want you to get substance out of what I am doing so please, please be patient and I promise that what is birthed will be real "sweet"!!!
FREE ONE ON ONE SESSIONS!!!
While I am ramp things up - I invite all of you to email me and maybe we can set up some one on one time in The HUNT/FX Lab where we can share whats going on via live Chat, Cam and Voice! Let me know if you would like to participate in some of these sessions by emailing me at vhunt@huntfx.com. I look forward to it.
I bet you want a forecast huh?
EUR/USD
I am not sure how my last forecast did I have not compared notes but lets look at the Euro today, which right now as I am writting is straight taking some short dudes money! lol!!!
In theroy Nobody - well anybody trading the 1D chart should be trading the Euro right now - In the last week in a held position - Trading the way we should be trading as professionals - and not gamblers - We may have earned 49 - 50 pips to this point now! With tremendous downside risk. As Tenkan sen sits at 1.2090 and in a prevailing "uptrend" or Bull scenario in the 1D we have seen as low as 1.2040 which is a downside risk of over 50 pips - Mind you each day stays above 1.2080? So Far! at least - So if you trade smaller time frames - you should have been able to scalp the crap out of the market this week - But for Trendy's it been really hard to get a foot.
What we need to happen -
1. First - right off the bat we need a close below the 1.2090 mark - on the 1D chart
2. We need to establish a strong entry and exit strategy -
3. We need to see the Chikou Span above 1.2155
4. And we will also need a break above 1.2150 to line up for any continued upward momentum.
Here is the catch! lol!! A Bear Scenario may be coming into play -
Looking at the 1M Chart on this pair we see that we have a fresh Tenkan Kijun Cross showing Bear and the cross was made above the Kumo - so with that - we are actually in a fresh formed Bear trend on the long term - that may seek - 1.1277 levels - or lower but that is wayyyy out there. So lets bring it in...
We may begin a reversal at this point - if so we are looking at lower levels on the 1D Chart - with 1.1979 being the first solid target. We need a close below the key 1.2090 area - to start truly considering this view in the short term (coming weeks). Below 1.1976 we may see 1.1922 with sub level below this point...
Bear Strategy - Sell with a close below 1.2030 with a target of 1.1979 with a secondary of 1.1922.
Bull Strategy - Buy above 1.2153 with a target of 1.2230.
* This area will present us with a clear view of rather this pair is "over extended" and preparing for a larger corrective scenario.
For the next few days - watch this pair (unless of course you trade in smaller time frames), However the above gives a good picture of coming price action.
1.20.2006 UPDATE..
The Euro showed some signs of life!! It rose up to key levels - however still not ready to be traded for any relevant gain - But there is hope..
I believe this pair is headed back toward the 1.2198 and 1.2230 area - This is based on the 1D view presented by the pair - so with that said I have Alarms set at 1.2120 and 1.2155 - Upon tripping these - I will re-evaluate the haelath of the pair - however my bias is Bull. I am not too much concerned at this point with the long term 1M outlook - as I am wit the immediate Kumo structure presented on the 1D chart that delivers key levels - 1.2198 and 1.2230 - I would like to see these targets hit in the immediate for a true dive to lower depths -
I will update you on this one more as it unfolds -
Have an intelligent weekend!!!

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